Has spring sprung, or at least hopped?

Given all of the changes in demand from interest rate increases and tax changes, you’d expect transactions to continue to slow and prices to decline.

Even in spring, usually a busy time of year, we’ve seen a more subdued clearance rate - roughly consistent with conditions before September.

Historically, days on market usually decrease in August from July, then shorten again in September, reflecting increased demand.

In August, the national median days on market rose to 45, up from 43 in July.

Usually, August sees a slight decrease in days on market as early-spring demand comes online.

In contrast, and consistent with history, days on market fell in September to 44 nationally.

That decrease in days on market was driven by Victoria and New South Wales. Not only did stock move faster in September, but sale prices also rose.

The national median sale increased to $860,000 from $830,000. The median sale price increased from $726,000 in August to $752,000 in September in Victoria and from $960,000 to $1.03 million in New South Wales. Whilst this remains preliminary, as sale reporting flows in over the next couple of months, it is still likely to show some increase in sale price.

This partly reflects lower supply coming to market in Victoria and New South Wales.

New listings in Victoria and New South Wales were down year on year in September.

Melbourne and Sydney had roughly the same number of total listings on the market as a year ago, despite properties spending more days on the market than last year, when homes in both states typically sold in 30 days. So what does this mean for buyers and sellers? Melbourne and Sydney were the first two markets to experience the current correction in home prices, with peaks in October and November 2025, respectively. That expectation of a lower price level is more established now than in cities like Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide. So properties coming to market in Victoria and New South Wales are likely priced accordingly. In addition, new listings are down year on year, so buyers are likely seeing fewer options come online than before, leading to lower supply and higher competition.

In Sydney, dwelling transactions are likely to increase soon as buyer and seller prices meet again and listings move more efficiently. Other markets will follow, but this is likely to be a lagged effect, as affordability levels are lower and the cost of borrowing is higher than in Victoria and New South Wales, relative to incomes.

Ultimately, Australia has a housing shortage; with that structural shortage, the downturn was always likely to have a floor. With days on market falling in Melbourne and Sydney, we may be very near the start of it. Luc Redman, Economist

First published 26 Oct 2026,